SNAP delivers climate change data to public’s fingertips

The above graph is a sample of the information available for Alaska communities, via the SNAP website.

Nearly every community in Alaska now has access to climate change data focused on their own backyard, thanks to a new, user-friendly tool created by UAF’s Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning.

SNAP, housed within the UA Geography Program, collaborates with policymakers and land managers throughout the state, including serving in an advisory capacity to the Governor’s Sub-cabinet on Climate Change.

“These new community charts allow people to get in touch with climate change at the local level,” explained SNAP Director Scott Rupp. “It can be hard to digest the big picture on a global or even a statewide scale but this method makes it easier to relate to, in a way that is specific to how changes can impact specific locations.”

Over 350 places in Alaska are included in the community charts. Data is presented at low, medium, and high future greenhouse gas levels. Concentration of the gases has a direct impact on how the Earth warms. Average temperature and precipitation figures are presented by month for a late-twentieth century baseline, and are projected for every decade out to 2100. The website allows users to compare various communities and consider how the changing climate may affect their own activities such as gardening or hunting or more public concerns, including drought, forest fire, or permafrost melt.

SNAP staff used Google tools and technology to create the charts, based on research by John Walsh, chief scientist of the International Arctic Research Center, and the SNAP team to provide the most accurate climate predictions for Alaska.

“This is our first effort to link communities in Alaska with basic climate scenario methods,” Rupp said. “This makes it easy to look at how precipitation and temperature will change throughout this century.”

Connecting Alaska landscapes into the future

Alaska marmots, trumpeter swans, reed canary grass, caribou, and entire biomes such as the Arctic and the Aleutians were featured in a presentation addressing the future of Alaska’s landscapes Dec. 8.

Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning Coordinator Nancy Fresco and Karen Murphy of the US Fish and Wildlife Service talked about their research in a collaborative project involving many state and federal agencies and other nongovernmental partners. Project leaders also include Falk Huettman, UAF, and John Morton, USFWS. Goals were to identify areas in Alaska that likely serve as landscape-level migration corridors currently and into the future given climate change, and to identify strategies that will help maintain landscape-level connectivity by focusing conservation efforts, minimizing redundant research and monitoring, and sharing data and information.

For this project, SNAP provided climate projections representing precipitation and temperature for June and December for selected decades from the 2000s to the 2090s. Dr. Huettman created models that linked current species and biome distributions to recent climate conditions, and then used SNAP projections to map potential shifts in biomes and species ranges. Fresco stressed that these maps represent only potential change, and that the plant species that characterize these biomes would be unlikely to move so rapidly. “Still, there are likely to be some fairly radical shifts,” Fresco said. The most noticeable differences predicted include movement of Interior climate north into much of what is currently Arctic, and potential biome instability in the western part of the state. The maps also show resiliency--places in the state where changes are most and least likely to occur.

Recommendations included in the report include focusing on better modeling, delineation, and monitoring of both refugia and regions of extreme change. Further work will focus on adding species distributions and populations to the analysis. Each species’ ability to migrate and tolerate temperature may be charted. Adding permafrost and sea ice data will make the maps “a sharper tool,” Murphy said.

The map predictions show the Trumpeter swan population spreading northward and westward in coming decades, reed canary grass (an invasive species) spreading widely across the state, and Alaska marmots thinning and shifting northward. Caribou, a generalist species, proved difficult to model using the above techniques.

These results will be presented in a report that will be approved by the various partners before being officially released. Project participants hope that the report will serve as a jumping-off point for future research as well as an aid to all Alaskans with a stake in landscape management. A podcast of the presentation and the slide show are available at the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy website. ACCAP hosted the webinar.

Seminar connects Alaska landscapes into the future

Nancy Fresco, coordinator of Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning, a service provided by the UA Geography Program, and Karen Murphy, US Fish and Wildlife Service, will present a climate webinar Tuesday, Dec. 8 from 10 to 11 a.m. The presentation is titled "Connecting Alaska landscapes into the future."

Understanding how climate change will affect biodiversity and traditional subsistence is a common challenge faced by federal, state, Native, and private land managers. The Connecting Alaska Landscapes into the Future project was a consensus-based effort that included the US Fish and Wildlife Service and University of Alaska researchers, as well as state and federal agency and non-profit partners. The project’s goal was developing the methodology and thought processes to identify a network of lands that support ecosystem functions to ensure landscape-level connectivity within Alaska.

In order to model projected changes in statewide biomes and in potential habitat for key species, the researchers gathered data on existing conditions and linked these to models of future conditions, using climate projection data from SNAP, input from project participants, and complex statistical models. With feedback from participants, the models were refined and used as the basis for creating maps of potential future statewide connectivity.

The results in the report are preliminary and are not intended to be proscriptive, but rather to serve as a guide for planning and as a jumping-off point for synergy and further research an Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy spokesperson said. ACCAP hosts the webinars.

Pre-registration is encouraged. To register please fill out the web-form, or contact Brook Gamble, ACCAP outreach and education specialist, (907) 474-7812.

To attend in person visit the SNAP and ACCAP offices at 3352 College Road, Fairbanks.

From farming to floorball: Erin Carr

It’s a long way from digging in the dirt at the Fairbanks Experiment Farm to the 2009 World Floorball Championships in Sweden— but graduate student Erin Carr (pictured at left) will be there. From Dec. 5-12 Carr and her teammates will be competing against international teams for the world championship.

Raised in Seward, Carr earned a B.S. in wildlife biology from UAF in 2005. She has been doing graduate studies with Associate Professor Mingchu Zhang and expects to earn her master’s degree in natural resources management in 2011. She works as a research technician for the USDA Agricultural Research Service, testing soil samples at the Fairbanks Experiment Farm and assisting USDA ARS Research Agronomist Steven Seefeldt with his research.

Carr started playing floorball with a recreational team at UAF and when she saw that the USA Floorball team was seeking members she applied. She held fundraisers and sought sponsors to pay for her travel to Vasteras, Sweden, for the competition. An offensive player, Carr enjoys the fast pace of the game. She explained that floorball is similar to floor hockey but instead of a puck a Whiffle ball is used, and the players can’t use their hands.

Carr’s graduate research focuses on controlling weeds in organic farming, both at the experiment farm and Rosie Creek Farm. She is comparing the use of cover crops to mechanical tillage to control weeds. Her emphasis is studying the impact of the different methods on soil properties.

Erin Carr works in the field at Fairbanks Experiment Farm in the autumn of 2008.

Carr and her father built a cabin for her to live in while she attends school. She enjoys gardening and playing with her dog. Her career goal is to continue doing agricultural research for the government.

The Great Carbon Debate

The Sustainability Campus Task Force student group is presenting a discussion/debate on whether carbon dioxide emissions and should be capped, tonight at 6 pm in the Wood Center Ballroom.

Outgoing borough mayor shares tips with students

From left, SNRAS graduate students Tracy Rogers, Benjamin Rance, Leah Roach, former borough mayor Jim Whitaker, Yosuke Okada, and Tina Buxbaum examine Whitaker's files.

When former Fairbanks North Star Borough Mayor Jim Whitaker arrived at the UAF campus Nov. 19 to be the guest speaker for the SNRAS graduate seminar he did not show up empty-handed.

During his four years as a state representative and six as the borough mayor, Whitaker had accumulated forty-three bankers’ boxes of files. He randomly selected one from his garage to take to the seminar and as he talked to the students about policy he grabbed papers from the box and read excerpts. Each file had a story behind it. Items he pulled out brought forth tales of Bill Allen of VECO, former Sen. Ted Stevens, former Gov. Frank Murkowski, BP price fixing, and proposed legislation.

“Public policy is frustrating as hell,” Whitaker said. He urged the students to imagine what it would be like if they weren’t able to trust the people who make public policy. “We expect people to be honest and we should require them to be so,” he said.

“It’s easy to be cynical and it’s appropriate to be critical. The system works because of all the components.”

Whitaker advised the audience to look at lands in the context of global warming. He said Alaska is in an uncomfortable position right now. “Maybe we will get a slap in the face from Washington, D.C. Maybe it’s OK we are moving in that direction, away from Ted Stevens having all the power. Things are changing and we have to recognize that. We can’t have old set values; we know so much darn more now.”

As much planning as there has been in Alaska for a gas pipeline Whitaker predicted the state would be lucky to have one by 2054 if counting on Outside assistance. “We need to find a way to do a gas pipeline ourselves or find alternative energy. If we don’t take care of our energy needs we are at risk.”

He said public policy works best when people get involved. “It’s slow; it’s cumbersome and I’m proud to be part of it,” Whitaker said. “The system works; I didn’t say it was perfect.”

Serving the public has been the most rewarding experience of his life, Whitaker said. His advice to anyone considering running for office is to put others ahead of themselves, tell the truth, and to be straightforward, thoughtful, and considerate.

“If I were young and idealistic like you I would ask why aren’t things better,” Whitaker said. “My invitation to you is to change it. This is one of the few places in the world where you can do it.”

Since leaving the mayor’s office in mid-November, Whitaker said he will shy away from anything political for a while and is looking forward to going to back to school.

Related reading:
Former mayor says borough needs to solve its own problems, Fairbanks Daily News-Miner, Nov. 21, 2009, by Amanda Bohman

Sfraga named vice chancellor

University of Alaska Fairbanks Chancellor Brian Rogers has named Mike Sfraga (pictured at right) UAF’s new vice chancellor for students.

Sfraga is currently the director of the UA Geography Program and associate dean of the School of Natural Resources and Agricultural Sciences. As vice chancellor, he will oversee a broad range of departments that serve UAF’s students, including admissions, the registrar’s office, financial aid, student activities, and residence life.

"Dr. Sfraga has the background and experience UAF needs to build its reputation as a student-focused research university,” Rogers said. “Mike has shown that he takes the ‘for students’ part of the new title seriously."

Sfraga’s career at the university has spanned nearly twenty-five years. During that time, he has served in a variety of student services and academic positions, from his first job at UAF as a residence hall director to associate vice president for student and enrollment services at UA statewide. He assumed his current duties in 2005.

Sfraga earned his bachelor’s degree and a doctoral degree in geography and northern studies from UAF. He also holds a master’s degree from Bowling Green State University.

Sfraga said he hopes to provide a supportive and responsive atmosphere for students.

"I am honored to lead a division of committed professionals who work hard each day to foster a student-centered university,“ Sfraga said. “I'm excited and motivated to be a part of this institutional commitment."

Sfraga replaces Tim Barnett, who left UAF in June to take a position as vice chancellor for student affairs at the University of Illinois at Springfield. Jake Poole, vice chancellor for advancement, has filled the position in the interim. Sfraga will start his new job on Jan. 1.

SNRAS/AFES Dean and Director Carol Lewis said, "This is an opportunity to have an important voice for research on the chancellor's cabinet."